How our scores are built.
Every score on The Connect is transparent, source-attributed, and auditable. This page documents the models behind procurement matching, sovereign and political risk, reserve adequacy, and confidence scoring.
Sovereign Risk Composite
A 0–100 score built from nine equally-weighted dimensions: political stability, fiscal position, external debt, reserve adequacy, CDS/market signals, rule of law, currency stability, growth trajectory, and sanctions exposure. Each dimension is normalised to a 0–100 sub-score from its underlying indicators, then averaged. Higher scores indicate higher risk. Methodology follows the Council on Foreign Relations sovereign-risk framework, adapted for procurement exposure.
Political Risk Score
A focused measure of near-term political stability and policy continuity, derived from governance indicators, election and transition calendars, civil-stability signals, and monitored official communications. Trend arrows reflect the 90-day direction of change.
Reserve Adequacy Score
Central-bank reserve strength scored against the IMF Assessing Reserve Adequacy (ARA) metric, incorporating import cover, short-term external debt cover, and gold/SDR composition. Banks are classified Strong / Adequate / Weak.
Confidence Scoring
Every record carries a 1–5 source-confidence tier: 5 = primary official source (government, MDB, IMF/BIS/ECB); 4 = licensed institutional data feed; 3 = reputable secondary; 2–1 = unverified or derived. Scores are shown alongside each datapoint so users can weight accordingly.
AI Bid Matching
Notices are scored against a firm's profile — sector expertise, country footprint, contract-size band, and stated history — to produce a 0–100 bid-fit, generated by a large-language model (Claude Opus 4.8) and presented with its rationale. Matching is advisory and never filters out eligible opportunities.
Update Cadence & Source Attribution
Procurement and policy data refresh on a three-hour ingestion cycle; sovereign macro — GDP, debt, growth, inflation, reserves and benchmark yields — syncs daily from the World Bank, IMF, and ECB. Every record links to its originating source and carries a timestamp. No record is shown without attribution.